Thursday 4/23/09 service plays chatter /comps/ requests & gm strategy...

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Thursday 4/23/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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sdf

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why is he getting posted? someone delete this

someone bought the plays for today and posted them. there's not much they can do if someone buys a single day subscription to his plays and posts them on a forum.
 
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Cajun Sports

Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Chicago White Sox

Oriole Park will be the site of tonight’s third and final game in this three-game set between the host Baltimore Orioles and the visiting Chicago White Sox. The Orioles took game one of the series but the Sox bounced back yesterday with an 8 to 2 win to even things up. Chicago will send right-hander Bartolo Colon to the bump with his 1-0 record, ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.03. The Sox average 6.50 runs per game when he takes the mound this season and they only allow 3.0 runs to be scored. He is coming off his worst outing of the season at Tampa Bay allowing five runs on six hits in 5.2 innings of work to take the loss 6 to 5. In his previous start he pitched six innings gave up three hits and no runs in the win over Minnesota 8 to 0. We expect Bartolo to rebound here and have a strong outing versus this Orioles team as they are 42-71 versus pitchers over .500. Colon qualifies as a contact and fly ball pitcher and the Orioles struggle against either style, going 27-39 versus contact pitchers and 25-36 versus fly ball hurlers. Chicago on the offensive side has performed extremely well against sub .500 pitchers posting a record of 49-26 in that situation and Baltimore is sending Adam Eaton to the hill with his 0-2 record and ERA of 11.25 on the year. The Orioles pitching overall is near the bottom in several key categories with their starters only averaging 4.55 innings per game and their overall pitching staff averaging 166.1 pitches per contest. The Orioles average 3.5 runs per game when Adam Eaton takes the mound and allow 8.5 runs per game. In his last start at Boston he allowed nine hits and six earned runs in just four innings of work averaging 23.2 pitches per inning in a 6 to 4 loss. High pitch counts have been a problem for Eaton in the past his last outing at home versus Tampa Bay saw him average 25.0 pitches per inning. In that game he lasted only four innings giving up eight hits and four earned runs in an 11 to 3 loss. If we go back to last season his last two starts show the same problem with high pitch counts versus Arizona he pitched 3.2 innings giving up eight earned runs and averaging 24.8 pitches per inning. In the game prior to Arizona he lasted 2.2 innings giving up ten hits, six earned runs and averaged 25.5 pitches per inning versus the Mets. Of course both of those games were losses for his team. He will face a White Sox team that is averaging more runs per game on the road than at home so far this season with an average of 5.20 on the highway. They are 4-3 W/L their last seven overall, batting .293 and have an OBP of .374 on the road. While Eaton’s team is 2-5 W/L their last seven overall and their bullpen is giving up 7.27 runs per game at home this season with a WHIP of 1.654, all bad signs for the O’s and Eaton on Thursday night. Our Team Efficiency numbers show the White Sox with a 75 percent average while the O’s come in with only a 40 percent average. These numbers make it even easier to back the better team and pitcher tonight as the Sox get win number two and take this series 2 games to 1.

Graded Selection: 2* Chicago White Sox 6 Baltimore Orioles 4
 
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Marc Lawrence

Play On: L.A. Dodgers w/Billingsley

When the Dodgers send Chad Billingsley to the hill in Houston against the Astros this evening they will do so knowing he is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in his career team starts in this park. He's also riding a 4-game win streak during the opening month of April. Look for more of the same from Billingsley and the Dodgers here tonight.
 
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Craig Trapp

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

Enough is enough two Bonus Play losses in a row have made Craig break out and give his PREMIUM PLAY for FREE TODAY! Take advantage of this yesterday Craig's MLB Premium Plays were undefeated. Today we go to Houston where the Dodgers are trying to avoid the sweep!! Lets look at records and trends on this game:

Records

LA Dodgers 10-5 Billingsley 3-0 (2.84 ERA)

Houston Astros 6-9 Rodriguez 1-1 (1.89 ERA)

Betting Trends

Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Dodgers are 4-2 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.

Astros are 4-11 in their last 15 games as an underdog.

Astros are 5-1 in Rodriguezs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Astros were really playing poorly before the LAD came into town but in the first two games they have looked like the favorite. Astros pitchers have allowed less than 5 runs in both games and Houston hitters have been tearing up a very good LAD pitching staff. Today that will all change as Billingsley is undefeated (3-0) and has been averaging over one strikeout per inning and is the best power pitcher in the National League. Rodriguez has been good for HOUSTON but for some reason when he pitches his team does not score much for him. EASY ROAD WIN FOR LAD TODAY!! SCORE LAD 5 - HOU 1
 
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Ben Burns

Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins worked hard to earn home ice advantage for this series while the Flyers squandered their chance to do so. Now, the Penguins can close things out at home and I expect them to make the most of their opportunity. The Pens are more talented and they've been the better team this series. Consider Pittsburgh.
 
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James Patrick Sports

Carolina vs. New Jersey

Goaltending at its best in this series as the Devils Martin Broduer has three Stanley Cup Titles and his young counterpart Cam Ward has won one himself. With these established cool & collective team leaders between the pipes we'll use our Thursday NHL Playoff complimentary selection on New Jersey - Carolina Under the Total
 
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Jeff Benton

How about that big underdog winner on the Royals yesterday, huh? That takes my free-play winning streaks to 19-8 in the last 27 days, 10-2 in the last 12 days and 3-0 in the last three days! For Thursday, we go right back to Kansas City in this early start in Cleveland.

What’s not to like about the Royals right now? They’re 8-6 on the season (including 5-3 on the road), while Cleveland is now 5-10 on the season (2-3 at home). Kansas City is also trotting out Opening Day starter Gil Meche, who has pitched like an ace so far (1-0, 2.25 ERA in three starts). By comparison, the Tribe are countering with Anthony Reyes (he of the 5.73 ERA).

Going back to the final three meetings of last season, the Royals have now taken six of eight from the Indians, including four of five in Cleveland. And it’s not just pitching that has done the damage for K.C. during this 6-2 run against the Indians – the offense has averaged nearly seven runs per game in the eight contests.

Some more numbers for you: Kansas City has won 13 of its last 17 on the road since last season; 21 of its last 30 overall; 12 of its last 14 against right-handed starters; and five of Meche’s last six starts overall. And that bullpen discrepancy I mentioned yesterday? It’s still there: The Royals’ relievers sport a 3.72 ERA on the season. Cleveland’s bullpen ERA? How about 7.23, including 9.20 at home. Oh yeah, I absolutely LOVE the Royals in this spot and at this ridiculous price!

5♦ KANSAS CITY
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline

Boston at CHICAGO

On Monday night we were right on the pulse of this Boston-Chicago showdown, giving you a comp play winner on the OVER.

We will come right back this Thursday evening, and play another OVER between the teams. These teams have combined to go OVER the posted total in their last 4 meetings, and 6 of their last 8 overall have also played HIGH.

For Boston, they are on an OVER run of 4 in a row dating back to the regular season, and 8 of their last 9 dating back to the regular season have also gone HIGH.

Chicago meanwhile has been OVER the total in 4 of their last 6 games, and playing at home this year, the Bulls are on a 23-17-1 OVER clip in their 41 home games to date.

Expect another game played in the 100's for both teams, and expect it to be 5 in a row OVER in the Boston-Chicago series come the final buzzer.

Play the UP!

4♦ OVER
 
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Matt Rivers

For Thursday take the Jazz at home.

There is no team in any sport on the planet that is more Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to playing at home vs. the road. Jerry Sloan's squad is as good as they come when playing in Utah but for some strange reason they just do not travel well and lose more often than they win on the highway.

If the Jazz are going to win a game in this series against the high flying and top seeded Lakers then this is that spot. It is pretty apparent that winning at Staples is not going to happen and if Deron Williams and the fellas fall into an 0-3 hole then game four is probably not going to turn out that well either. This is thee spot for the Jazz as they are still in the series, somewhat.

Williams, Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko, possibly Mehmut Okur if he is healthy enough and the rest of the Jazz will come out tonight and lay it all on the line. Will that be enough against Kobe and what is the best team in the game in the Lakers? Maybe, maybe not but if there is ever a spot to back the Jazz and expect them to be successful in this series this is that spot.

It's a perfect letdown spot for LA and the only spot that Utah can probably win a game in this series in so sign me up and I'll root for the Mormons against the Kobe's!
 
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Chris Jordan

Boston +2' at CHICAGO

They say the oddsmakers can tell you everything with the line they put out there. When you see a line you don’t understand, you have to ask yourself: “What are they trying to tell you? Who is supposed to win that game?”

Thing is, that theory is better served with mysterious road chalk. Here tonight, with this line, I think we’re seeing a tad-bit of disrespect, and that we’re going to find out how much mettle the defending champs actually have.

If there is any one game this team must show up for – this is it. We already knew Kevin Garnett would be out for the entire postseason. Now we find out forward Leon Powe will miss the rest of the postseason because of a torn anterior cruciate ligament and meniscus in his left knee. So in the hell do we count on that loss of forward-presence … again?

The good news is Ray Allen may have single-handedly kept the Celtics from being down 2-games-to-nil when he broke out of a slump to score 30 points - including the decisive 3-pointer with 2 seconds left – and led the defending NBA champions a 118-115 win over the Bulls on Monday night. Quite a change from Game 1, in which he scored just four points on 1-for-12 shooting and in which he missed the final shot in Chicago's 105-103 overtime win two nights earlier.

I know the hype is against us. I know the hype and crowd will be a solid foundation for recently named Rookie of the Year Derrick Rose. And I know these are the same Celtics who were pushed to the brink last season against an eerily similar team from Atlanta. But again, if there was ever one game that mattered to the Celtics, it’s this one, as home-court advantage could be back in their corner.

Take the points.

1♦ CELTICS
 
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Bobby Maxwell

San Antonio +4' at DALLAS

Tonight's FREE winner on the hardwood comes from Dallas as we go with the visiting Spurs against the Mavericks in Game 3 of their opening-round Western Conference playoff series.

After getting beaten in the opener, the Spurs came out on Monday with a different look to them and they didn't let up the entire game. Tony Parker is showing he is the best player on the court and look for the Spurs to make life tough on the Mavs in Dallas tonight. Grab the points as this one could come down to a final possession.

Just like in Game 1, San Antonio jumped out to a big first-quarter lead, but this time they didn't blow it in the second half. They kept their foot on the gas pedal as Parker went for 38 points and eight assists. Five Spurs scored in double-digits and Tim Duncan came with 13 points and 11 rebounds and they outrebounded the Mavericks 44-28 and held Dallas to 40.3 percent shooting.

Dallas is on ATS slides of 1-5 as a postseason favorite, 5-21 on Thursdays and 3-8 in conference quarterfinal games. Remember, this team hasn't gotten out of the first round the last two years and we don't see them getting out of this series.

Play the Spurs in this one as they are 7-3-1 ATS in conference quarterfinal games and in this rivalry, the road team is 15-7 ATS and the 'dog is 16-6 in those 22 games. Grab the points and go with San Antonio tonight.

4♦ SAN ANTONIO
 
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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Karl Garrett

San Antonio +5' at DALLAS

Thus far neither game in this San Antonio-Dallas series has been very close, but tonight the G-Man feels we are going to get a close contest. That being the case, I am on the underdog Spurs plus the points to stay inside the number in Big "D" this Thursday night.

San Antonio has won 5 of their last 6 games dating back to the regular season, and they know the best chance to steal back home court advantage always comes in the first game played in a series on the enemy's hardwood.

Dallas finished the regular season just 19-22 against the spread on their home wood, while San Antonio was a positive 23-17-1 against the spread on the road this season.

Also note the Spurs are on a 6-3 straight up run in this series, 5-4 against the spread, and the road team is a profitable 15-7 against the spread the last 22 meetings.

This one has final possession written all over it.

G-Man taking the points with the Spurs.

3♦ SAN ANTONIO
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Michael Cannon

Kansas City -105 at CLEVELAND

Take the Royals for the road win this afternoon over the Indians.

Kansas City is a team that is on the rise and it’s because of a stellar pitching staff.

It was on display last night when Brian Bannister tossed a gem and the Royals beat last year’s Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and the Tribe, 2-0.

Now the Indians have to find some offense against Gil Meche, who has pitched better than his 1-0 record would indicate. The right-hander has a 2.25 ERA in three starts and has walked only four batters while striking out 18 in 20 innings. Meche has yet to allow a home run this year as well.

Cleveland will counter with Anthony Reyes, who is pitching better in the American League than he did when he was in St. Louis.

But I can’t see Reyes outperforming Meche in this setting, as the Cleveland starter will have little room for error going against a pitcher who seems to give the Royals a quality start just about every time out.

Reyes has pitched well against Kansas City in his brief stint with the Tribe, but I can’t overlook his 13-25 overall career record.

Take the Royals as they grab the road win.

2♦ KANSAS CITY
 
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Bobby Maxwell

L.A. Dodgers -120 at HOUSTON

The Dodgers have dropped the first two games of this three-game set in Houston, but there's no way they're losing a third straight, especially with Chad Billingsley (3-0, 2,84 ERA) going to the mound. Lay the chalk and play the Dodgers tonight.

Los Angeles came into Houston having won eight straight, but losses Tuesday and Wednesday have them looking to salvage this one. The Dodgers certainly know how to score runs, having gotten five runs or more in eight straight.

Lefty Wandy Rodriguez (1-1, 1.89 ERA) is on the mound for Houston and he was tough at home on Saturday, blanking the Reds for seven innings, allowing just two hits and striking out 10. He hasn't been very good against the Dodgers in his career, including last year's home start when he gave up five run on six hits in five innings of a 7-6 loss. In his last 10 innings against Los Angeles he's allowed nine runs in 10 innings.

Going back to last season, Billingsley has kept the opposition to three runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings. Against Houston, he was nasty last year, allowing two runs (none earned) in eight innings of a 5-2 victory.

Look for the Dodgers offense to blow up in this one and deliver a big victory, plus Billingsley will keep the Astros in check. Play Los Angeles.

3♦ L.A. DODGERS
 
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Jimmy The Moose

San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Over

The team's combined for 7 goals in their last game. The over is 5-2-4 in the Sharks last 11 games as a playoff favorite. The over is 6-2-1 in the Ducks last 9 games overall. In their last 10 games as home dog the over is 7-3. In their last 7 games overall as a dog the over is 5-1-1. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games played with 1 day rest. This will be a high tempo game and should easily play over the total.
 

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